OK There seems to be alot of confusion concerning this formula. I doubt this thread will clear it all up, but I am going to give it a try.
First I will post the formula , then I will explain my interpretaion of it, and then I will tell you the different variations.
Here we go. Buckle your seat belts.
Formula, as it was given to me by Walt many years ago. THis is how I received word for word, typo for typo. (Well one or two typos may be mine)
<TABLE class=tborder id=post4542422 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=6 width="100%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD class=alt1 id=td_post_4542422 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #fdde82 1px solid">Example : Clev vs denver
Cle winning % is .600 and Denver is .057
Subtract the difference
Clev 600 - Den 057 = 543
Give 1 point for every 20% points Therefore 543 = 27, round to the nearest tenth
Home team is given 3 points
Subtract or add the difference
Clev is 37 and Den is home thus 27- 3 = 24
Then subtract or add point spread for the final number value
The spread for the game is Cle -9.5 points, thus 24 - 9.5 = 14.5
The final number must be 10 or greater for a PLAY. In this example, Clev is the PLAY.
If the spread is 10 or greater , do not play.
Anoterh PLAY can be derived rom a negative /positive computation. For example Utah/Chic 1/25/98
Chic % is 714 and Utah is 675. Thus 714 - 675 = 39 or 2 points for Chic. Chic was home 3 = 2 = 5 The spread had Chic by 5 or 5 - 6 = -1 or +1 for Utah. UItah won the game outright. The negative/positive computation must be -1, +1 or greater for the PLAY
10 steps to predicting the outcome of an NBA game:
1. Check % Clev 600 - Den 057
2. Subtract teams winning % 600 - 057 = 543
3. Find point equivalent 543 = 27 points
4. Give home team 3 pints Clev 27 - den 3 = 24 Add/subbtract difference
5. Add/subtract the point spread
6. Final number value must be 10 or greater Cle 24 - 9.5 = 14.5
7. Negative /poitive computation Chic 714 - Utah 675 = 39
Chic 2 + 3 (home) = 5
Chic 5 - 6 = -1 or +1 Utah
Final number is "-" for a favorite and "+" for an underdog. Final number must be greater than 1 or less than -1
8. Don't play if selected team played the night before (No back to back games)
9. Dont play of one or more starters are out. Allow one week for return starters
10. Don't play 1st 20 games of the season or 1st 3 games after all star break
------------------------------------------------
The record for 1999 was 60-25 and for 2000 it was 73-30
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Ok There it is.
Now this is how i figure it out.
If you have a home favorite with a better winning %, to me, this is pretty much straight up.
You take the higher % , subtract the lower %....divide by 20. Add 3 (for being at home) and then subtract the spread.
If this final number is above 10, it is a play on the favorite.
If this final number is negative 1 or less, then it is a play on the dog.
If the final number is anywhere in between (0-10), then it is a no play.
That's it. Straight up, simple as can be.
Now the tricky one
What to do if a home team with a lower winning % is favored.
This is where the confusion lies. THere has been much dicussion as to whether or not the dog need to come out with a number above 10 or just the fact they are a positive number is enough.
Nw I have had great difficulty interpreting how this should be played, and why.
I finally decided to base my plays selection on two emailed examples I had received from Walt.
Here they are:
-------------------------------------------------------------
Example 1:
Christmas Day 2000
Indiana at home minus 5 1/2 vs. Orlando
This is what he types , word for word, letter for letter:
Orl462-Ind429=33 or 1.5Orl-3(H)=1.5Ind-5.5(SP)= -4Ind or +4Orl -4 is > than-1 thus it is play. Orl (+5.5)Ind. Orl lost.
Example 2:
Feb 2 2001
ind home minus 4 vs Denv
This is what he wrote:
Keeping an eye on den(+4)Ind-this is the 3rd situation where one team is % better but is getting points and is not a -/+computation game. Den565-Ind444=121or 6Den-3(home-Ind)=3Den+4(spread Ind)=7Den (people would sub and think it was 3-4= -1, I add 4 because if Ind -4 then Den is +4) It seems logical that if a team is better % wise they shoulod be giving points not getting them so I have decided to watch this 3rd situation (1st-final #10 or more, 2nd - -/+comp)
---------------------------------------------------------------------
So what is the difference between these 2 plays . Both have road teams with better winning % and are dogs, but one is a play, and one he is "watching".
The only difference I can see is with example one, your final number before the spread is a negative number. In example 2 , it is not.
I ahve asked others to detrmine the difference between the 2 plays, and no one has come up with anythig.
So without Walt to answer the question (it is possible he screwed up), I have nothing else to go on , but the fact that he talks about +/- computation and in one example where it is a play, the number before the spread goes into the negative and then back to positive.
So this is how I have determined these plays. Others still disagree and believe both examples should be plays, and thus the reason I have decided to post and track them separtately rather than not at all. They have been winning, and I want people to benfit with as many winners as possible. But I also want to keep the system to its purest sense possible.
(also note...this system had only been licking out about 100 or so plays a year, and by playing every road dog with better winning %, there will be a ton of plays. Not what the formula had intended)
So these examples are how I determine the plays. One plain and simple and the other, up for debate. I may one day have a euphoria,, and all of a sudden see the equation in a whole different light and change my thoughts on this, but for now, this is how I am proceeding.
Now on to "Filtered vs. non filtered"
I am not sure if Dice is labeling the above debated plays as filtered or non filtered, but I am pretty sure what is being referred to as "non flitered" are plays on team that have injured starters , played back to back games, or are more than 10 point spread. He had found these were winnning anyway and decided to play them regardless of aformentioned filters.
I still am not.
Notes:
back to back. If the team that is a play, played last night, it is a NO PLAY. It does not care what thier opponent did yeterday. Nor does both of them playing last night cancel each other out.
Injuries:
the rules say do not play if a starter is out and to wait one week for return.
I never remember Walt waiting a week after a starter returned. And I do remember him playing on teams after they adjust to the starter being out.
So this I am playing as a judgement call.
Example, Artest is out and Sac is still covering, so I will now play them if they come up as a play. And I will not wait one week after he is back.
Maybe "wait one week for return starters" meant wait one week for them to return, and if they don't, then play as normal"
He didn't play spreads of more than 10 simply because he was afraid of "garbage time"
So there it is. This is how I have come to understand it, and this is how I am playing it.
You can dissect and twist and turn and find a 1000 different variations to come up with as many more plays as you wish. If it works, more power to us.
But for me, I prefer to keep it to its simplest and play less plays. I would rather play one 10 unit play than play 5, 2 unit plays. (At least for this part of my bankroll)
And I hate to sound like a broken record but, if this formula works for oyu and you are able to make a profit from it, please please please find it in your heart to pass some of it along to others less fortunate than yourself. Drop a few coins off at a church or charity, give a pair of gloves to a guy living on the street. Many ways to do this. And it makes all the difference in the world.
Oh, and also, make to show the ones you love, how much you love them.
Take care all,
Larry Legend
First I will post the formula , then I will explain my interpretaion of it, and then I will tell you the different variations.
Here we go. Buckle your seat belts.
Formula, as it was given to me by Walt many years ago. THis is how I received word for word, typo for typo. (Well one or two typos may be mine)
<TABLE class=tborder id=post4542422 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=6 width="100%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD class=alt1 id=td_post_4542422 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #fdde82 1px solid">Example : Clev vs denver
Cle winning % is .600 and Denver is .057
Subtract the difference
Clev 600 - Den 057 = 543
Give 1 point for every 20% points Therefore 543 = 27, round to the nearest tenth
Home team is given 3 points
Subtract or add the difference
Clev is 37 and Den is home thus 27- 3 = 24
Then subtract or add point spread for the final number value
The spread for the game is Cle -9.5 points, thus 24 - 9.5 = 14.5
The final number must be 10 or greater for a PLAY. In this example, Clev is the PLAY.
If the spread is 10 or greater , do not play.
Anoterh PLAY can be derived rom a negative /positive computation. For example Utah/Chic 1/25/98
Chic % is 714 and Utah is 675. Thus 714 - 675 = 39 or 2 points for Chic. Chic was home 3 = 2 = 5 The spread had Chic by 5 or 5 - 6 = -1 or +1 for Utah. UItah won the game outright. The negative/positive computation must be -1, +1 or greater for the PLAY
10 steps to predicting the outcome of an NBA game:
1. Check % Clev 600 - Den 057
2. Subtract teams winning % 600 - 057 = 543
3. Find point equivalent 543 = 27 points
4. Give home team 3 pints Clev 27 - den 3 = 24 Add/subbtract difference
5. Add/subtract the point spread
6. Final number value must be 10 or greater Cle 24 - 9.5 = 14.5
7. Negative /poitive computation Chic 714 - Utah 675 = 39
Chic 2 + 3 (home) = 5
Chic 5 - 6 = -1 or +1 Utah
Final number is "-" for a favorite and "+" for an underdog. Final number must be greater than 1 or less than -1
8. Don't play if selected team played the night before (No back to back games)
9. Dont play of one or more starters are out. Allow one week for return starters
10. Don't play 1st 20 games of the season or 1st 3 games after all star break
------------------------------------------------
The record for 1999 was 60-25 and for 2000 it was 73-30
<!-- / message --></TD></TR><TR><TD class=alt2 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #fdde82 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: #fdde82 0px solid; BORDER-LEFT: #fdde82 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #fdde82 1px solid">
</TD><TD class=alt1 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #fdde82 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: #fdde82 0px solid; BORDER-LEFT: #fdde82 0px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #fdde82 1px solid" align=right><!-- controls --></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>Ok There it is.
Now this is how i figure it out.
If you have a home favorite with a better winning %, to me, this is pretty much straight up.
You take the higher % , subtract the lower %....divide by 20. Add 3 (for being at home) and then subtract the spread.
If this final number is above 10, it is a play on the favorite.
If this final number is negative 1 or less, then it is a play on the dog.
If the final number is anywhere in between (0-10), then it is a no play.
That's it. Straight up, simple as can be.
Now the tricky one
What to do if a home team with a lower winning % is favored.
This is where the confusion lies. THere has been much dicussion as to whether or not the dog need to come out with a number above 10 or just the fact they are a positive number is enough.
Nw I have had great difficulty interpreting how this should be played, and why.
I finally decided to base my plays selection on two emailed examples I had received from Walt.
Here they are:
-------------------------------------------------------------
Example 1:
Christmas Day 2000
Indiana at home minus 5 1/2 vs. Orlando
This is what he types , word for word, letter for letter:
Orl462-Ind429=33 or 1.5Orl-3(H)=1.5Ind-5.5(SP)= -4Ind or +4Orl -4 is > than-1 thus it is play. Orl (+5.5)Ind. Orl lost.
Example 2:
Feb 2 2001
ind home minus 4 vs Denv
This is what he wrote:
Keeping an eye on den(+4)Ind-this is the 3rd situation where one team is % better but is getting points and is not a -/+computation game. Den565-Ind444=121or 6Den-3(home-Ind)=3Den+4(spread Ind)=7Den (people would sub and think it was 3-4= -1, I add 4 because if Ind -4 then Den is +4) It seems logical that if a team is better % wise they shoulod be giving points not getting them so I have decided to watch this 3rd situation (1st-final #10 or more, 2nd - -/+comp)
---------------------------------------------------------------------
So what is the difference between these 2 plays . Both have road teams with better winning % and are dogs, but one is a play, and one he is "watching".
The only difference I can see is with example one, your final number before the spread is a negative number. In example 2 , it is not.
I ahve asked others to detrmine the difference between the 2 plays, and no one has come up with anythig.
So without Walt to answer the question (it is possible he screwed up), I have nothing else to go on , but the fact that he talks about +/- computation and in one example where it is a play, the number before the spread goes into the negative and then back to positive.
So this is how I have determined these plays. Others still disagree and believe both examples should be plays, and thus the reason I have decided to post and track them separtately rather than not at all. They have been winning, and I want people to benfit with as many winners as possible. But I also want to keep the system to its purest sense possible.
(also note...this system had only been licking out about 100 or so plays a year, and by playing every road dog with better winning %, there will be a ton of plays. Not what the formula had intended)
So these examples are how I determine the plays. One plain and simple and the other, up for debate. I may one day have a euphoria,, and all of a sudden see the equation in a whole different light and change my thoughts on this, but for now, this is how I am proceeding.
Now on to "Filtered vs. non filtered"
I am not sure if Dice is labeling the above debated plays as filtered or non filtered, but I am pretty sure what is being referred to as "non flitered" are plays on team that have injured starters , played back to back games, or are more than 10 point spread. He had found these were winnning anyway and decided to play them regardless of aformentioned filters.
I still am not.
Notes:
back to back. If the team that is a play, played last night, it is a NO PLAY. It does not care what thier opponent did yeterday. Nor does both of them playing last night cancel each other out.
Injuries:
the rules say do not play if a starter is out and to wait one week for return.
I never remember Walt waiting a week after a starter returned. And I do remember him playing on teams after they adjust to the starter being out.
So this I am playing as a judgement call.
Example, Artest is out and Sac is still covering, so I will now play them if they come up as a play. And I will not wait one week after he is back.
Maybe "wait one week for return starters" meant wait one week for them to return, and if they don't, then play as normal"
He didn't play spreads of more than 10 simply because he was afraid of "garbage time"
So there it is. This is how I have come to understand it, and this is how I am playing it.
You can dissect and twist and turn and find a 1000 different variations to come up with as many more plays as you wish. If it works, more power to us.
But for me, I prefer to keep it to its simplest and play less plays. I would rather play one 10 unit play than play 5, 2 unit plays. (At least for this part of my bankroll)
And I hate to sound like a broken record but, if this formula works for oyu and you are able to make a profit from it, please please please find it in your heart to pass some of it along to others less fortunate than yourself. Drop a few coins off at a church or charity, give a pair of gloves to a guy living on the street. Many ways to do this. And it makes all the difference in the world.
Oh, and also, make to show the ones you love, how much you love them.
Take care all,
Larry Legend
