Service Plays Thursday 8/7/08

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NFLX Thursday, August 7, 2008

Ford Field (Detroit, Mich)
7:00 pm
N.Y. Giants
Detroit

Cleveland Browns Stadium (Cleveland, Ohio)
7:30 pm
N.Y. Jets
Cleveland

Gillette Stadium (Foxborough, Mass)
7:30 pm
Baltimore
New England

Soldier Field (Chicago, Ill.)
8:00 pm
Kansas City
Chicago

University of Phoenix Stadium (Glendale, Ariz)
8:00 pm
New Orleans
Arizona

PlayByPlayInc. NFL

8/7/2008 NY GIANTS 3

CMG- already down on it it- will post a half hour before kickoffs.

Is it worth betting preseason games?

Paul Bovi.

My free pick of the day is the game between (251) NO Saints and (252) ARI Cardinals. Take "Under". It will be Tyler Palko, Mark Brunell and Travis Lulay getting most of the snaps for the Saints while coach Whisenhunt looks for his inaugural preseason win after last years.5? 0-4, though several were close. The Saints are sitting the bulk of the offensive talent inclding Deuce, Devery and Marques and will pay more close attention to the defensive side here as that has been their Achilles heel. Zona in the desert gets it 16-13 Under
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YOURWINNINGPICKS NFL PRESEASON THU.

THESE ARE THE FREE ONES, THE OTHER TWO ARE BEST BETS.

CLEVELAND BROWNS (-3) VS. New York Jets: The Jets are the play here as the QB question surrounding Gang Green will force coach Eric Mangini to play both Chad Pennington and Kellen Clemens for an extended amount of time here. Cleveland will play Brady Quinn a bunch and this will represent his first extended action as his rookie season was spent holding the clipboard. Jets are also 15-5 ATS in their last 20 preseason openers. THE PICK: New York Jets (+3)

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-5) VS. Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens will start Kyle Boller at QB which is never a good thing even in preseason. The Pats should come out fast as this is their first action since losing Super Bowl 42 in shocking fashion. Pats are also 32-19 ATS in their last 51 preseason openers when giving less than 5.5. THE PICK: New England Patriots (-5)

CHICAGO BEARS (-3) VS. Kansas City Chiefs: The Bears should beat up on the Chiefs here as KC breaks in a host of rookies on both sides of the ball and still have QB Brodie Croyle finding his way. Bears are looking for who will step up as QB and so Rex Grossman and Kyle Orton will look to open some eyes with their showing. THE PICK: Chicago Bears (-3)
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Lou Diamond

My free pick of the day is the game between (251) NO Saints and (252) ARI Cardinals. Take "Over". With coaches tipping their hands, some Pre-Seaon games can be just as strong, if not stronger, than regular season games. Find out why I have 3 easy NFL winners for today with my SPOT-ON analysis! Check it out! Both teams are beefing up their offenses and have some quality pre-season qb's that should give us opportunities to score all 4 quarters. Look for a high scoring affair here tonight.
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NFL SHORT SHEET

Thursday, August 7th

NY Giants at Detroit, 7:00 ET
NY Giants: 4-16 ATS on artifical turf
Detroit: 6-1 Over at home if total is 35 or less

NY Jets at Cleveland, 7:30 ET
NY Jets: 7-1 ATS on Thursday
Cleveland: 7-1 Under vs. AFC

Baltimore at New England, 7:30 ET
Baltimore: 6-1 Under if total is 35 or less
New England: 17-8 ATS as home favorite

Kansas City at Chicago, 8:00 ET
Kansas City: 0-4 ATS as road underdog
Chicago: 5-1 Under vs. AFC West

New Orleans at Arizona, 8:00 ET ESPN
New Orleans: 22-10 ATS in road games
Arizona: 3-0 Over if the line is +3 to -3

Vision said:

Is it worth betting preseason games?

Click to expand...

There's a capper called "Let It Ride". He is on the usasportsmonitor.net website. I bought his season package for college and pro football.
He did well the last 2 seasons in preseason.
This is his records for the last 3 seasons.

college football
2005 58-41 58.59%
2006 74-44 62.71%
2007 88-44 66.66%

pro football
2005 60-30 66.67%
2007 77-39 66.37% (11-2 preseason)
2008 83-43 65.87% (11-3 preseason)

If anyone would like to join in with me, please e-mail me.

nkff63@yahoo.com

JEFFERSONSPORTS 2-1 yest +1.00 units

hit 8 of last 12

59-39-1 last 99 plays (all sports) 60%

MLB RECORD
+29.80 units (+2980 playing 100 per game)

NFL EARLY RELEASE
CLEVELAND-3

MLB TOMORROW

Gator Report / Cajun Sports

NFL Preseason Selection:


Thursday, August 7, 2008

7:00 PM ET

1 STAR SELECTION

NY Giants @ Detroit UNDER 33 points

The Super Bowl Champion Giants will be in uniform Thursday night for the first time since last season's ultimate triumph, as Eli Manning and company visit the Lions in the 2008 preseason opener for both teams.

New York has some immediate concerns to address on the defensive side of the football. Gone are ex-starters such as defensive end Michael Strahan, safety Gibril Wilson, and linebackers Reggie Torbor, and Kawika Mitchell. Additionally, many of the Giants' highest-profile players are expected to see only limited time, including Manning, running back Brandon Jacobs, and wideouts Plaxico Burress and Amani Toomer. In fact, Burress might not play at all due to a lingering ankle injury, and might be joined on the shelf by Super Bowl hero David Tyree, who has spent the early stages of training camp on the Physically Unable to Perform list with a knee problem. QBs Anthony Wright and newcomers David Carr and rookie Andre Woodson will succeed Manning in the lineup at QB and see most of the action behind center for the champs.

Tom Coughlin is heartened that this post-Super Bowl training camp has been devoid of any major distractions but he is growing concerned with a number of minor but nagging injuries that have cut into the Giants New York Giants depth. The newest injury is starting right guard Chris Snee Chris Snee, who sat out with a sore shoulder and will have an MRI to see why he's experiencing discomfort. Backup guard Shane Olivea sat again and will have tests to determine the extent of the injury to his back. The receiver position has been hit hard, with Burress running on the side but that's it and others also unavailable. It looks as if rookie Mario Manningham will be out a while, as he has bleeding in his strained quad muscle.

Detroit, meanwhile, will be eager to witness the work of an offense that will take on a new look in 2008. Former coordinator Mike Martz was fired in the offseason, and has been succeeded by Jim Colletto, who is expected to take a more balanced approach to play-calling. Defensively, Detroit will be seeking strong initial returns from a revamped secondary.

There is only so much you can tell when a team is playing against itself. But a couple of things were clear from Lions camp: The defense is ahead of the offense, as it usually is at this stage, and the Lions are working hard on the running game. Detroit should have a fairly solid rotation at QB with Jon Kitna followed by backup quarterbacks Dan Orlovsky and Drew Stanton; however, we don't expect to see the ball thrown all over the lot with the team working on pounding the football.

Detroit knows that it can throw the football and that they have a couple of stud WRs, so there is no need for them to work on that part of their game. RUNNING the ball will be the gameplan here, and this is a new concept and scheme for the offensive line, so we don't expect it to be necessarily pretty. We don't expect the Giants to get much done either, being shorthanded at the receiving position, using a makeshift line, and the only good QB on their roster seeing very limited time on the field. Even Manning has not been sharp of late in camp.

Under these circumstances, we expect a low-scoring game with a lot of running plays that will burn the clock. New York has gone 3-0 UNDER in its last 3 NFLX road openers, and have seen 4 of their last 5 NFLX road openers go UNDER the total.

PROJECTED FINAL: NY GIANTS @ DETROIT UNDER 33 POINTS






NFLX 70% Super Situation:





NFLX Thursday: Play Under NFL teams where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points in the first two weeks of the pre-season, 42-16 Under last 5 seasons (72.4%)

PLAY: New Orleans / Arizona UNDER 36


NFLX Top Angles:

NFLX Thursday: New York Giants are 4-16 ATS on artificial turf since 1993.


NFLX Thursday: New York Jets are 9-1 ATS playing on the road with a total of 35 points or less since 1993.


NFLX Thursday: New England is 14-3 Under during the first two weeks of the preseason since 1993.
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Ben Lewis

NFLX 5* Cardinals -2.5

LT Profits

NFLX 2* Ravens +4

NFLX 2* Jets +3

NFLX 2* Saints/Cardinals under 36

SCOTT FERRALL



FOOTBALL FREE B's FOR THURSDAY

GIANTS +3 from the Lions--you've got to be kidding me-Detroit is favored ? Please

Browns -3.5 to Jets--Cleveland has to show they mean it this year, so they'll come out and jack up the crappy Gang Green

Pats -5.5 to Ravens--New England ain't losing to Baltimore--sorry !

Bears -3.5 to Chiefs--KC doesn't have a QB, then again neither does Chicago--but they are clearly deeper and better

Saints +3 from the Cards--Arizona always blows--it doesn't matter who they have. New Orleans is out for blood this year
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Wunderdog

Baltimore at New England
Pick: Baltimore +5

It is going to be difficult psychologically for bettors to look at a New England game and resist them as just a mere 5 point favorite at home. What we must do however is keep this in perspective. This is an exhibition game! The logo on the helmets and regular season success and failure do not come into play here. But the oddsmakers are forced by the hand of the betting public to consider a few extra points. Even with that said over 60% have already pulled the trigger for the Pats in this one. The Pats opened the season in 2007 scoring 30+ points in their first eight regular-season games. A great start, right? Consider however they did not reach 30 in a single exhibition game. Brady threw seven passes in the opener last season. The result was 10 total points scored and a Patriot loss. Their's no doubt this offense will turn it on come September, but the preseason is a different animal all together. The Patriots have been an elite team for years,but over the last three exhibitionseasons they have been favored by 4 or more points three times and have not covered a single one. In contrast, we have the Baltimore Ravens with a first year coach in John Harbaugh. What does that mean? First year coaches are new for a reason - their teams were bad last season - bad enough to fire their head man. New coaches come in for one reason - to change things. They want to win from the start, more than entrenched coaches, and especially more than coaches of teams so good that have nothing to prove to anyone (i.e. the Pats). These first-year coaches want to change the culture of losing and as such, they put more of an emphasis on winning in the preseason. Does Harbaugh want to win here? Yes! Does Bellichick? He could really care less. The Patriots have dropped two of their last three ehibition home openers outright. We will back the more motivated Ravens here to keep this one close, or even steal one.

Wild Bill

Patriots -5 (5 units)
Chiefs +3 (5 units)
Arizona -2 (5 units)
Arizona-Saints Under 36 1/2 (5 units)
Pittsburgh -3 (5 units)
Eagles-Pittsburgh Under 33 1/2 (5 units)
Seattle +2 1/2 (5 units)
St L-Tenn Under 33 (5 units)
Dallas +3 (5 units)
Bengals +3 1/2 (5 units)

Can'tPickaWinner said:

LT Profits

NFLX 2* Ravens +4

NFLX 2* Jets +3

NFLX 2* Saints/Cardinals under 36

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comps

Seattle Seahawks +3.0 (-110)
Fri Aug 8 '08 8:00p

The Seattle Seahawks fits nicely into what we like to call a GAP system on Friday night, and they get the call as road underdogs when they visit the Minnesota Vikings.

The first step in this system to group each team into either the Good, Average or Poor category (ergo, GAP) based solely on their win totals of last season. Well, the Seahawks grade out as Good while the Vikings grade out as Average, This is significant because higher classed road underdogs are 77-51, 60.2 percent against the spread the last seven preseasons.

Looking at the specific teams, the Seahawks are a nice 6-2 straight up and ATS on the road during the preseason over the last four years. They also like to get off on the right foot in these exhibition games, going 4-1 both SU and ATS in the last five openers. Conversely, the Vikings have lost their last two August openers and since they are a popular pick to win the NFC Central, they will in all likelihood be more concerned with staying healthy than posting wins during this preseason.

Finally, the Vikings have been distracted lately by all of the talk concerning the acquisition of Brett Favre, which may result in their corps of young quarterbacks pressing a bit in an attempt to impress.

Seahawks +3 (-110)


San Francisco 49ers +3.0 (-110)
Fri Aug 8 '08 10:00p

The San Francisco 49ers and the Oakland Raiders have had a couple of joint practices this summer, so they are both somewhat familiar with what to expect this week, which automatically gives value to the underdog.

Besides the 49ers are a very young team that may seemingly get as many wins this preseason as they do the entire regular season, so they probably have the greater motivation to win early between these two teams. Then again, that would be nothing new considering that the Niners are 3-2 straight up and 3-1-1 against the spread vs. their Bay Area rivals the last five years in preseason.

Now the Raiders are expected to improve this season, thanks to their first round draft pick Darren McFadden, but you just know that they will handle Run DMC with kid gloves during the exhibition season, not wanting to risk a serious injury. Thus, we will see the same last place team as last year for the most part, at least in the early weeks.

Look for the underdog Niners to pull a confidence-building upset here.

49ers +3 (-110)

SPORTS ADVISORS

NFL Preseason

N.Y. Giants at Detroit

The Super Bowl champion Giants start warming up for their title defense when they travel to Ford Field to open the preseason against the Lions.

After going 7-1 SU and ATS in the 2005 and 2006 preseasons, New York slipped to 1-3 SU and ATS last August, all as an underdog. Meanwhile, Detroit was 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS in the preseason last year, and it has cashed in just four of 16 preseason games dating to 2004 (6-10 SU). The home field hasn’t helped the Lions in that span, as they’ve gone 2-6 ATS (4-4 SU) at Ford Field.

Giants quarterback Eli Manning will get the start, but he’s only expected to play the first two series at the most, and all the starters should be gone by the second quarter. Journeymen Anthony Wright and David Carr will follow Manning, and rookie Andre Woodson could also see some time.

New York’s receiving corps will be thin, with Plaxico Burress, Steve Smith, David Tyree and Mario Manningham all sitting with minor injuries.

Jon Kitna is back as the Lions’ starting quarterback, but he and the rest of the first-string offense and defense will be on the field for only about 10 snaps, coach Rod Marinelli said. No. 2 QB Dan Orlovsky will follow Kitna and play about 1½ quarters, with former second-round pick Drew Stanton finishing up.

The under is 8-4 in New York’s last three preseason campaigns, including 7-1 on the road, and the under is 4-2 in Detroit’s last six preseason home contests.

ATS ADVANTAGE:UNDER


N.Y. Jets at Cleveland

On the day they reportedly agreed to a trade for Brett Favre, the Jets head to Cleveland for an exhibition game against the Browns, who will attempt to continue their recent preseason hot streak.

New York, entering coach Eric Mangini’s third season, went 3-1 SU and ATS last year in preseason play, and the Jets are 11-5 SU over the past four exhibition campaigns (9-7 ATS), including 5-2 SU and ATS in their last seven preseason road contests.

Mangini has kept his quarterback situation under wraps throughout camp, and with the apparent acquisition of Favre, it looks as though Chad Pennington and Kellen Clemens are now battling for the backup job. Both are expected to play tonight, with rookie Erik Ainge and Brett Ratliff getting time in the second half.

Cleveland also went 3-1 SU and ATS in the 2007 preseason and is 11-5 SU and 12-4 ATS dating to 2004, one year before the arrival of coach Romeo Crennel. The Browns are also 6-2 ATS in Cleveland over the past four preseasons.

Browns quarterback Derek Anderson will play the first quarter, with Brady Quinn expected to step in for the second and third quarters, followed by Ken Dorsey.

The under has been the preseason play the past three years for Cleveland, going 8-4 overall.

ATS ADVANTAGE:CLEVELAND


Baltimore at New England

The AFC champion Patriots, who fell one game short of a historic perfect season last year, get back at it when they open the preseason against the Ravens at Gillette Stadium.

New England, entering its ninth season under coach Bill Belichick, has been an average preseason squad the past three years, going 6-6 SU (2-2 all three years) and 6-5-1 ATS. In the past two summers, though, the Pats are 3-1 SU and ATS as a favorite, all of more than three points.

Baltimore, now under rookie head coach John Harbaugh after Brian Billick was fired following the 2007 season, went 1-2 SU and ATS last year in the preseason and is 8-7 SU and ATS over the past four exhibition seasons. On the road in that span, the Ravens went 3-4 SU and ATS.

Quarterback Tom Brady is nursing a calf injury and will be a game-time decision for the Patriots. If Brady plays, it likely won’t be for more than two series, and he’ll be followed by Matt Cassel, Matt Gutierrez and rookie Kevin O’Connell, all of whom are battling it out to be Brady’s backup.

QB Kyle Boller will start for the Ravens and is expected to play most, if not all, of the first half, followed by Troy Smith in the third quarter and rookie Joe Flacco in the fourth quarter. Baltimore will be without RB Willis McGahee and tight end Todd Heap, both down with injuries.

The over is 3-1 in New England’s last four home preseason games, with both contests in Foxboro last year topping the total. On the flip side, the under is on an 8-3 run over the past three exhibition campaigns for Baltimore.

ATS ADVANTAGE:NEW ENGLAND


Kansas City at Chicago

The Bears, who reached the Super Bowl in the 2006 season but missed the playoffs last year, open 2008 against the Chiefs at Soldier Field.

Chicago went 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS in the 2007 preseason and is 10-7 SU (8-8-1 ATS) in exhibition games since coach Lovie Smith took over in 2004. The Bears have gone 1-1 SU each of the last five preseasons and are just 3-7 ATS at Soldier Field during that stretch.

Kansas City, in a precursor to its 4-12 regular season, went 0-4 SU and ATS last August and is just 2-10 SU and ATS in its last 12 exhibition contests. Since 2004, the Chiefs are 0-8 SU and ATS in preseason road games.

QB Kyle Orton gets the starting nod for the Bears tonight and will play the first quarter, followed in the second quarter by Rex Grossman, with both quarterbacks playing behind the first team. Caleb Hanie is expected to play in the second half.

Herm Edwards, entering his third season as Chiefs coach, said Brody Croyle’s starting job is safe. Croyle is expected to start tonight and could play into the second quarter, though Edwards wouldn’t specify the exact game plan. He did say Tyler Thigpen will replace Croyle and get most of the remaining snaps before handing off to veteran Damon Huard.

The over went 3-1 in the preseason for Chicago last year, but the under is 6-2 in Kansas City’s last two exhibition campaigns.

ATS ADVANTAGE:CHICAGO


New Orleans at Arizona

The Saints, who slid to 7-9 last year after nearly making the Super Bowl in 2006, travel to University of Phoenix Stadium to take on the Cardinals.

New Orleans, entering its third year under coach Sean Payton, went 3-2 SU and ATS in the 2007 preseason, including 2-0 SU and ATS in true road games and 3-1 ATS as an underdog. Over the past five preseasons, the Saints are just 8-13 SU and ATS in August, but they are 6-4 SU and ATS on the highway.

Arizona went 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS in coach Ken Whisenhunt’s first preseason last year. The Cards have been a middling team at home the past four Augusts, going 2-6 SU and 4-4 ATS. They’re also 2-4 ATS as a favorite the last four summers.

QB Drew Brees will start for the Saints and is expected to play the whole first quarter, with Mark Brunell coming on and playing into the third quarter, followed by Tyler Palko. New Orleans will be shorthanded on offense, though, with RB Deuce McAllister, TE Jeremy Shockey and WR Devery Henderson all sitting out, and WR Marques Colston questionable.

QB Matt Leinart will have a limited start for the Cardinals, playing one to two series, and Kurt Warner will follow for one to two series as both passers battle for the No. 1 job. Brian St. Pierre and rookie Anthony Morelli are slated to take the snaps the rest of the way, though all four QBs are likely to be without injured wideouts Anquan Boldin and Early Doucet.

The under has cashed in five of New Orleans’ last seven preseason contests, but the over has been the play in five of Arizona’s last six exhibition games and is 4-2 at home for the Cardinals in the past three summers.

ATS ADVANTAGE:NEW ORLEANS and OVER

BOB BALFE

NFL Preseason Football
Browns -3 over Jets
Cleveland will have a QB controversy again in the preseason, but Derrick Anderson looks like the starter again this year. The Browns had a great year in 2007 and still have the offense to make a playoff run. The jets just acquired Brett Favre which has to take the focus off of tonight's game just a bit for the Jets QB's who know their roster spot isn't as secure as it was last night. What I like about the Browns tonight is all three QB's have great qualities for young guys and should be productive tonight.

Ravens +3.5 over New England
After Tom Brady the Patriots backups flat out stink. The Pats also have a brittle offensive line which should limit Brady to a few snaps maybe none at all. Baltimore has upgraded their QB position with rookie Joe Flacco from Delaware. This guy is good and there is a reason why they took a Delaware product so early in the draft. We will also get our first look at Ray Rice at running back. The Ravens have a lot of positive things happening and could get back to the playoffs very soon. New England might look like they did in last year's super bowl tonight.

Chiefs/Bears Under 34
I don't think either team will light up the scoreboard tonight. The Chiefs Will start Carole who cant buy a win and the majority of the game will go with Tyler Thigpen. Sounds more like a baseball name to me. The Bears again have Orton and Grossman starting for a job. No matter what happens Grossman will end up winning the job taking his team to the playoffs and continue to get his boos from the crowd. Chicago will get a look at rookie running back Matt Forte tonight which will help milk the clock. I don't think this game has enough offensive fireworks to make it high scoring. Take the Under.