Correlated Parlays - Discussion

ToddInVegas said:

Are there many, if any books that allow correlated parlays?

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fhmesq44 said:

With CFB around the corner I figured I would start this to get some thoughts on what makes a parlay correlated enough to provide an advantage. The below link was posted by someone last year and proposes 33%.


Correlated enough???:lol:

As Forrest would say, "Stupid is as stupid does" There is no such thing as correlation between 2 mutually exclusive events meaning there is no cause and effect. There is no correlation between the Total and the Side, it just appears that way, an illusion you might say.

But it gets worse, lets say you reside in a parallel universe and a correlation does exist. Then you would have to buck the following basic parlay math :

WW=W
WL=L
WT=L
LL+L

Notice that out of the 4 possible outcomes to your parlay bet only one of them is a winner.

1 winning outcome that is 3 to 1 against you winning your wager. If you do win, do they pay you 3 to 1 odds? Of course not. Its butt ugly odds against you . (Some places will give a straight up win on that WT or a Tie and give your money back so its 2 to 1 against).

Again IF there was such a thing as correlation the odds are completely skewed in their favor.

Sucker bets are for people that don't have a basic understanding of math.

If you have a desire to bet Parlays after understanding the simple math may I recommend GA.

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~Falco~ said:

If you have a desire to bet Parlays after understanding the simple math may I recommend GA.

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~Falco~ said:

fhmesq44 said:

With CFB around the corner I figured I would start this to get some thoughts on what makes a parlay correlated enough to provide an advantage. The below link was posted by someone last year and proposes 33%.


Correlated enough???:lol:

As Forrest would say, "Stupid is as stupid does" There is no such thing as correlation between 2 mutually exclusive events meaning there is no cause and effect. There is no correlation between the Total and the Side, it just appears that way, an illusion you might say.

But it gets worse, lets say you reside in a parallel universe and a correlation does exist. Then you would have to buck the following basic parlay math :

WW=W
WL=L
WT=L
LL+L

Notice that out of the 4 possible outcomes to your parlay bet only one of them is a winner.

1 winning outcome that is 3 to 1 against you winning your wager. If you do win, do they pay you 3 to 1 odds? Of course not. Its butt ugly odds against you . (Some places will give a straight up win on that WT or a Tie and give your money back so its 2 to 1 against).

Again IF there was such a thing as correlation the odds are completely skewed in their favor.

Sucker bets are for people that don't have a basic understanding of math.

If you have a desire to bet Parlays after understanding the simple math may I recommend GA.

Click to expand...

wrong wrong wrong

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~Falco~ said:

fhmesq44 said:

With CFB around the corner I figured I would start this to get some thoughts on what makes a parlay correlated enough to provide an advantage. The below link was posted by someone last year and proposes 33%.


Correlated enough???:lol:

As Forrest would say, "Stupid is as stupid does" There is no such thing as correlation between 2 mutually exclusive events meaning there is no cause and effect. There is no correlation between the Total and the Side, it just appears that way, an illusion you might say.

But it gets worse, lets say you reside in a parallel universe and a correlation does exist. Then you would have to buck the following basic parlay math :

WW=W
WL=L
WT=L
LL+L

Notice that out of the 4 possible outcomes to your parlay bet only one of them is a winner.

1 winning outcome that is 3 to 1 against you winning your wager. If you do win, do they pay you 3 to 1 odds? Of course not. Its butt ugly odds against you . (Some places will give a straight up win on that WT or a Tie and give your money back so its 2 to 1 against).

Again IF there was such a thing as correlation the odds are completely skewed in their favor.

Sucker bets are for people that don't have a basic understanding of math.

If you have a desire to bet Parlays after understanding the simple math may I recommend GA.

Click to expand...

Riddle me this Batman,

- last year USC was -39 and o/u was 57 against Stanford. How can you claim that USC is just as likely to cover a 39 point spread AND keep the game under 57 as Stanford is to cover that 39 and stay under 57? How is the number of points USC scores NOT correlated to the total number of points in the game? If USC covers, they score at least 40 points. Or, even better, USC was -49 against Idaho and o/u was 58.5.

- if there is no player advantage, why do virtually no books take parlays on games such as the above (go try to parlay the UT or A&M games this weekend, favorite to over and dog to under).

- today, in soccer, Hertha Berlin is -2 with an o/u of 2.5. By your logic, Hertha is just as likely to cover (25% chance) -2 AND stay under 2.5 (an actual impossibility) as their opponent is to cover +2 and stay under.

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ensign_lee said:

Funny how little discussion actually happens when a topic that actually has substance comes up.

Threads like this and that bankroll management thread with calculus involved should be the ones with the most replies, not the least.

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